SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Spain | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 5 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Greece | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 46.7%. A win for Germany had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Germany win was 2-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Germany | Draw | France |
29.28% ( -0.11) | 24.02% ( 0.02) | 46.7% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 58.54% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.5% ( -0.19) | 43.5% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.11% ( -0.18) | 65.89% ( 0.18) |
| Germany Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.09% ( -0.17) | 27.91% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.47% ( -0.22) | 63.53% ( 0.22) |
| France Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.21% ( -0.04) | 18.79% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.79% ( -0.07) | 50.21% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Germany | Draw | France |
| 2-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.27% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.04% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.81% Total : 29.28% | 1-1 @ 11.19% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.97% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.25% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.02% | 1-2 @ 9.35% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 7.33% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 5.21% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.08% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.33% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 2.18% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.71% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.35% Total : 46.7% |
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