Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Worthing win with a probability of 39.18%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 36.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Worthing win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.45%) and 0-2 (5.76%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
