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National League North | Gameweek 14
Oct 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
The Impact Arena

Alfreton
3 - 1
Hereford

Thewlis (65' pen., 73' pen.), Day (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Babos (54')
Coverage of the National League North clash between Alfreton Town and Hereford United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Gloucester City 3-0 Alfreton
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Hereford 3-1 Curzon Ashton
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in National League North

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 49.3%. A win for Hereford United had a probability of 26.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Hereford United win was 0-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.

Result
Alfreton TownDrawHereford United
49.3% (-0.118 -0.12) 24.59% (-0.113 -0.11) 26.12% (0.23 0.23)
Both teams to score 54.19% (0.567 0.57)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.89% (0.646 0.65)48.11% (-0.648 -0.65)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.73% (0.591 0.59)70.27% (-0.592 -0.59)
Alfreton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.45% (0.206 0.21)19.55% (-0.21 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.54% (0.336 0.34)51.46% (-0.339 -0.34)
Hereford United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.35% (0.53099999999999 0.53)32.65% (-0.533 -0.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.81% (0.59 0.59)69.2% (-0.59100000000001 -0.59)
Score Analysis
    Alfreton Town 49.29%
    Hereford United 26.12%
    Draw 24.58%
Alfreton TownDrawHereford United
1-0 @ 10.41% (-0.22 -0.22)
2-1 @ 9.52% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.5% (-0.117 -0.12)
3-1 @ 5.18% (0.038 0.04)
3-0 @ 4.63% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.9% (0.063 0.06)
4-1 @ 2.11% (0.029 0.03)
4-0 @ 1.89% (-0.002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.18% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 49.29%
1-1 @ 11.66% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 6.38% (-0.173 -0.17)
2-2 @ 5.33% (0.081 0.08)
3-3 @ 1.08% (0.038 0.04)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.58%
0-1 @ 7.15% (-0.088 -0.09)
1-2 @ 6.53% (0.057 0.06)
0-2 @ 4% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.44% (0.056 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.99% (0.058 0.06)
0-3 @ 1.49% (0.025 0.02)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 26.12%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Gloucester City 3-0 Alfreton
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Alfreton 1-1 Warrington Town
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Blyth Spartans 1-3 Alfreton
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Alfreton 4-0 Boston
Saturday, September 9 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Banbury 0-0 Alfreton
Tuesday, September 5 at 7.45pm in National League North
Last Game: Alfreton 2-2 Scunthorpe
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Hereford 3-1 Curzon Ashton
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: South Shields 0-0 Hereford
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Hereford 1-0 Bishop's Stortford
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Spennymoor 2-0 Hereford
Saturday, September 9 at 3pm in National League North
Last Game: Chester 1-2 Hereford
Tuesday, September 5 at 7.45pm in National League North
Last Game: Hereford 0-1 Southport
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in National League North


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