Plymouth Argyle are in red-hot form, and they should be able to sail through to the second round. Grimsby Town have not won in three games, and we cannot see this run ending against the team that are top of the division above.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 41.37%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 33.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.48%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 2-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.05) 
