Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 26.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.
0.24) 
-0.12) 
