While a decent cup run could appeal to Carlisle, prioritising League One safety could mean their undefeated run at this stage ends at Leyton Orient.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leyton Orient win with a probability of 48.65%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 26.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leyton Orient win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Leyton Orient would win this match.
