Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leyton Orient win with a probability of 38.64%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.1% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leyton Orient win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.99%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leyton Orient would win this match.
-0.05) 
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