We said: Luton Town 0-2 Chelsea
Luton ought to beware a wounded Chelsea seeking to lay down a marker at Kenilworth Road, but not many teams have experienced much joy on the Hatters' turf since the turn of the year.
The Luton faithful's hopes of an FA Cup upset are not unfounded by any means, but Tuchel surely cannot fathom any more domestic disappointments just yet, so we still expect the Blues to return to winning ways and book their spot in the quarter-finals.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 63.52%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 14.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.57%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.28%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-0 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
