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FA Cup | First Round
Nov 3, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
The Borough Sports Ground
BL

Sutton
0 - 1
Birmingham


Sivi (10'), Barbrook (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Thor Willumsson (34')
Allsop (15'), Laird (58'), Anderson (62'), Cochrane (90+4')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Braintree 0-1 Sutton
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Birmingham 7-1 Fulham U21s
Tuesday, October 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Sutton United 0-2 Birmingham City

Despite the gulf in class between the two sides, Sutton are likely to make the contest a challenging one for League One leaders Birmingham. Blues will be able to control the ball on the artificial surface at Gander Green Lane and should earn safe passage into the second round if they can avoid a full-blown battle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 58.03%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Sutton United had a probability of 20.11%.

The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.76%) and 0-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.25%), while for a Sutton United win it was 2-1 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.

Result
Sutton UnitedDrawBirmingham City
20.11% (0.010999999999999 0.01) 21.85% (-0.07 -0.07) 58.03% (0.060000000000002 0.06)
Both teams to score 55.66% (0.247 0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.42% (0.318 0.32)42.58% (-0.315 -0.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.01% (0.317 0.32)64.99% (-0.315 -0.31)
Sutton United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.02% (0.19500000000001 0.2)34.98% (-0.192 -0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.28% (0.202 0.2)71.72% (-0.19799999999999 -0.2)
Birmingham City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.6% (0.126 0.13)14.4% (-0.122 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.69% (0.241 0.24)42.31% (-0.23699999999999 -0.24)
Score Analysis
    Sutton United 20.11%
    Birmingham City 58.03%
    Draw 21.85%
Sutton UnitedDrawBirmingham City
2-1 @ 5.39% (0.0049999999999999 0)
1-0 @ 5.29% (-0.046 -0.05)
2-0 @ 2.78% (-0.01 -0.01)
3-1 @ 1.89% (0.012 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.83% (0.019 0.02)
3-0 @ 0.97% (0.001 0)
Other @ 1.97%
Total : 20.11%
1-1 @ 10.25% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-2 @ 5.22% (0.027 0.03)
0-0 @ 5.04% (-0.071 -0.07)
3-3 @ 1.18% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 21.85%
1-2 @ 9.94%
0-1 @ 9.76% (-0.093999999999999 -0.09)
0-2 @ 9.46% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
1-3 @ 6.42% (0.029 0.03)
0-3 @ 6.11% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 3.37% (0.033 0.03)
1-4 @ 3.11% (0.027 0.03)
0-4 @ 2.96% (0.011 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.63% (0.023 0.02)
1-5 @ 1.21% (0.016 0.02)
0-5 @ 1.15% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 58.03%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Braintree 0-1 Sutton
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Sutton 0-1 Gateshead
Wednesday, October 23 at 7.45pm in National League
Last Game: Sutton 1-3 Oldham
Saturday, October 19 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Chertsey Town 1-3 Sutton
Saturday, October 12 at 3pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Hartlepool 4-3 Sutton
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Woking 1-2 Sutton
Saturday, September 28 at 3pm in National League
Last Game: Birmingham 7-1 Fulham U21s
Tuesday, October 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Mansfield 1-1 Birmingham
Saturday, October 26 at 12.30pm in League One
Last Game: Birmingham 2-0 Bolton
Tuesday, October 22 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 1-3 Birmingham
Saturday, October 19 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Shrewsbury 0-4 Birmingham
Tuesday, October 8 at 7.30pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Charlton 1-0 Birmingham
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in League One


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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