Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 65.71%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 14.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.82%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 1-0 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.02) 
