Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 53.75%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 21.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%), while for a Penafiel win it was 0-1 (6.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
