SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 66.35%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 13.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.17%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.56%), while for a Penafiel win it was 0-1 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Penafiel |
66.35% ( -0.17) | 20.12% ( 0.11) | 13.53% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 47.25% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.35% ( -0.3) | 46.65% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.09% ( -0.28) | 68.91% ( 0.29) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.83% ( -0.14) | 13.17% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.13% ( -0.29) | 39.87% ( 0.29) |
| Penafiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.41% ( -0.08) | 45.59% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.6% ( -0.07) | 81.4% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Penafiel |
| 2-0 @ 12.33% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 12.17% ( 0.09)2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0)3-0 @ 8.34% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 6.55% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3.32% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.71% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.79% Total : 66.34% | 1-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.75% Total : 20.12% | 0-1 @ 4.72% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.22% Total : 13.53% |
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