Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 54.09%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 23.2% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 1-2 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.01) 
