SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 47.95%. A win for Millwall had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Millwall win was 1-0 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Southampton in this match.
| Result | ||
| Millwall | Draw | Southampton |
27.6% ( -0.54) | 24.46% ( -0.55) | 47.95% ( 1.09) |
| Both teams to score 55.85% ( 1.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.51% ( 2.05) | 46.49% ( -2.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.23% ( 1.89) | 68.77% ( -1.89) |
| Millwall Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.35% ( 0.67) | 30.65% ( -0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.11% ( 0.78) | 66.89% ( -0.78) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.53% ( 1.28) | 19.47% ( -1.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.68% ( 2.06) | 51.32% ( -2.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Millwall | Draw | Southampton |
| 1-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.49) 2-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.21)3-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 1.65% ( -0.05)Other @ 3% Total : 27.6% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( -0.32) 0-0 @ 5.97% ( -0.53)2-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.45% | 0-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.45) 1-2 @ 9.45% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 7.99% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 5.15% ( 0.26)0-3 @ 4.36% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.21)1-4 @ 2.11% ( 0.19)0-4 @ 1.78% ( 0.13)2-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.13)Other @ 3.05% Total : 47.95% |
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