SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 44.08%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Boavista |
44.08% ( 0.52) | 25.08% ( 0.05) | 30.85% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 55.86% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.58% ( -0.43) | 47.42% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.37% ( -0.41) | 69.63% ( 0.41) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.48% ( 0.06) | 21.52% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.42% ( 0.09) | 54.58% ( -0.09) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.18% ( -0.59) | 28.82% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.33% ( -0.75) | 64.67% ( 0.75) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Boavista |
| 1-0 @ 9.53% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 7.32% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.75% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.9% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.48% Total : 44.08% | 1-1 @ 11.85% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.08% | 0-1 @ 7.72% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.37% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 4.8% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.6% Total : 30.85% |
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