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CONCACAF Gold Cup | Final
Jul 17, 2023 at 12.30am UK
Masafi Stadium
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Mexico
1 - 0
Panama

Gimenez (88')
Vasquez (11'), Montes (45+3'), Gallardo (54'), Alvarez (60')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Cummings (21'), Christiansen (26'), Carrasquilla (55'), Godoy (64'), Mosquera (90+6')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Jamaica 0-3 Mexico
Thursday, July 13 at 3.36am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Mexico356
2Qatar304
3Honduras3-34
4Haiti3-23
All competitions
CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: USA 1-1 Panama (4-5 pen.)
Thursday, July 13 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Gold Cup

We said: Mexico 1-0 Panama

Honestly, this match could go either way, as these two teams have probably been the most consistent at the 2023 Gold Cup, but it seems as though being under-the-radar heading into this competition has served Mexico well, while the pressure of potentially being the first side from Central America to win this tournament may be too much for Los Canaleros to handle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 59.29%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Panama had a probability of 16.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.13%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%), while for a Panama win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mexico in this match.

Result
MexicoDrawPanama
59.29% (-0.109 -0.11) 23.81% (0.207 0.21) 16.9% (-0.099 -0.1)
Both teams to score 44.08% (-0.747 -0.75)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.87% (-0.904 -0.9)55.13% (0.904 0.9)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.62% (-0.749 -0.75)76.38% (0.749 0.75)
Mexico Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.63% (-0.374 -0.37)18.37% (0.374 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.51% (-0.638 -0.64)49.49% (0.638 0.64)
Panama Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.99% (-0.665 -0.66)46.01% (0.664 0.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.28% (-0.521 -0.52)81.72% (0.52 0.52)
Score Analysis
    Mexico 59.29%
    Panama 16.9%
    Draw 23.8%
MexicoDrawPanama
1-0 @ 14.32% (0.33 0.33)
2-0 @ 12.13% (0.13 0.13)
2-1 @ 9.42% (-0.072000000000001 -0.07)
3-0 @ 6.85% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.32% (-0.105 -0.11)
4-0 @ 2.9% (-0.039 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.25% (-0.073 -0.07)
3-2 @ 2.07% (-0.08 -0.08)
5-0 @ 0.98% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 59.29%
1-1 @ 11.11% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 8.45% (0.291 0.29)
2-2 @ 3.66% (-0.097 -0.1)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 23.8%
0-1 @ 6.56% (0.108 0.11)
1-2 @ 4.32% (-0.061 -0.06)
0-2 @ 2.55% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 1.12% (-0.037 -0.04)
2-3 @ 0.95% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 1.41%
Total : 16.9%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Jamaica 0-3 Mexico
Thursday, July 13 at 3.36am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Mexico 2-0 Costa Rica
Sunday, July 9 at 3.10am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Mexico 0-1 Qatar
Monday, July 3 at 2.30am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Haiti 1-3 Mexico
Friday, June 30 at 3am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Mexico 4-0 Honduras
Monday, June 26 at 1.30am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Panama 0-1 Mexico
Sunday, June 18 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: USA 1-1 Panama (4-5 pen.)
Thursday, July 13 at 12.30am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Panama 4-0 Qatar
Sunday, July 9 at 12am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Panama 2-2 El Salvador
Wednesday, July 5 at 2am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Martinique 1-2 Panama
Friday, June 30 at 11.30pm in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Costa Rica 1-2 Panama
Tuesday, June 27 at 2am in CONCACAF Gold Cup
Last Game: Panama 0-1 Mexico
Sunday, June 18 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League


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