For the first time in a decade, Panama are in the Gold Cup final with another opportunity to claim a first CONCACAF title Sunday when they battle Mexico at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
El Tri will be in the deciding game for the 11th time following a 3-0 semi-final triumph over Jamaica, while Los Canaleros took out the reigning champions, the USA, on penalties.
Match preview
When this tournament began, few were giving the Mexicans a chance to lift this trophy, unusual when you consider that this team had made the final in three of the previous four Gold Cups, winning it twice over that span and being crowned champions a record eight times.
Jaime Lozano inherited a side under intense scrutiny after Mexico had a sub-par 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign, failed to reach the knockout round of that tournament for the first time this century and were handled easily in the Nations League semi-finals by the United States earlier this year (3-0).
The man who led the Mexican Under-23 team to a bronze medal at the 2019 Pan American Games has pushed most of the right buttons since taking charge, winning four of his five matches as interim coach of the senior squad, while his side have not conceded in the knockout stage of this competition.
Their impressive form under Lozano seems to have restored the belief in this team which appeared to be missing before this competition began, and El Tri enter this upcoming match having never lost consecutive Gold Cup finals, perhaps a good omen seeing as they were beaten 1-0 in extra-time at the 2021 final versus the United States.
Another thing working in their favour is the fact that El Tri have never lost a Gold Cup final to anyone except the US, defeating Brazil at this stage twice and handling the Jamaicans 3-1 to claim the title in 2015.
El Tri have captured six successive victories when drawing first blood, and losing only once in the Gold Cup final when scoring first.
While Mexico are unbeaten in its previous 13 matches versus the Panamanians, they have lost two of their last three Gold Cup encounters against them, falling 2-1 in both the group and semi-final stage in 2013.
It has been quite the journey for Thomas Christiansen and Panama, from narrowly missing a World Cup qualifying playoff berth last year to losing in the CONCACAF Nations League semi-final this June and now on the cusp of a first-ever Gold Cup triumph.
To the surprise of many, Panama held off a dynamic American attack for 90 minutes on Wednesday, limiting them to just three shots on target after two hours of play while registering five themselves.
Although their victory was unexpected, many of the underlying numbers suggest their advancement was fully deserved, with Los Canaleros claiming 56% of the possession, scoring at least once in eight of their 12 matches versus the US in this competition and completing 288 passes against them after 45 minutes Wednesday, the most that any American opponent had accumulated in the opening half of a Gold Cup clash since 2013.
Scoring against Mexico, however, has proven to be more challenging, with Panama being shut out in four of their previous five meetings with El Tri.
Four of their five goals conceded at the Gold Cup this year have occurred beyond the 90th minute, but despite giving up a 105th-minute equaliser to Jesus Ferreira in the semi-finals, La Marea Roja came through in the shootout.
As a result, the Panamanians can lift their first trophy since capturing the now-defunct Copa Centroamericana in 2009 and also become the first Central American nation to win the Gold Cup.
They have yet to score in a Gold Cup final, narrowly losing 1-0 to the US in 2013, while missing three of their four penalties taken at the 2005 final after that match against the Yanks ended 0-0.
Team News
Lozano made one change to his opening lineup against Jamaica, with Erick Sanchez replacing Edson Alvarez, while Diego Lainez and Carlos Rodriguez made their first appearances of the knockout round from the substitutes bench.
Earlier this week, Henry Martin and Luis Chavez found the back of the net for the second time at the Gold Cup this year, Roberto Alvarado picked up his second career goal at this competition and first since 2019, while Guillermo Ochoa registered his third clean sheet of the tournament.
Ochoa shut out the Panamanians the last time the two sides met in the third-place playoff game at the Nations League last month, with Jesus Gallardo scoring the only goal of that encounter.
On Wednesday, Christiansen went with the same starting 11 that began their quarter-final clash versus Qatar, with Anibal Godoy reaching 130 caps, good for fourth all-time with the national team, while Alberto Quintero is now at 135, two behind Jaime Penedo for second.
Making his first Gold Cup appearance this year, Ivan Anderson notched his first international goal Wednesday after coming on for Eric Davis late in the second half, though the spotlight belonged to Orlando Mosquera, who stopped Ferreira and Cristian Roldan from the penalty spot before Adalberto Carrasquilla converted the decisive kick.
Quintero played a big part in their Gold Cup victory over Mexico in July 2013, as he won his side a penalty which they converted to take a 1-0 lead after seven minutes, Cecilio Waterman hit the post with his team up by one on a night where Gabriel Torres had a brace in a 2-1 triumph.
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; J. Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Antuna, Chavez, Romo, Pineda; E. Sanchez, Martin
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mosquera; Escobar, Cummings, Andrade; Barcenas, Carrasquilla, Godoy, Davis; Fajardo, Quintero, Diaz
We say: Mexico 1-0 Panama
Honestly, this match could go either way, as these two teams have probably been the most consistent at the 2023 Gold Cup, but it seems as though being under-the-radar heading into this competition has served Mexico well, while the pressure of potentially being the first side from Central America to win this tournament may be too much for Los Canaleros to handle.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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