SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 72.87%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 9.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.11%) and 3-0 (10.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.35%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (3.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Bolivia |
72.87% ( 0.31) | 18.03% ( -0.34) | 9.1% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 39.29% ( 1.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.82% ( 1.45) | 49.18% ( -1.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.76% ( 1.29) | 71.24% ( -1.29) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.94% ( 0.51) | 12.06% ( -0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.44% ( 1.06) | 37.56% ( -1.06) |
| Bolivia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.68% ( 0.98) | 55.32% ( -0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.93% ( 0.57) | 88.07% ( -0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Bolivia |
| 2-0 @ 14.92% ( -0.29) 1-0 @ 14.11% ( -0.56)3-0 @ 10.52% 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 6.23% ( 0.19)4-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 3.3% ( 0.16)5-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.11)5-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.81% Total : 72.86% | 1-1 @ 8.35% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.4)2-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.39% Total : 18.03% | 0-1 @ 3.95% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 1.51% Total : 9.1% |
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