SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 83.76%. A draw had a probability of 12% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 4.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.12%) and 1-0 (12.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.43%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (2.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peru would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Peru | Draw | Bolivia |
83.76% ( 19.86) | 12% ( -11.36) | 4.24% ( -8.5) |
| Both teams to score 32.4% ( -4.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.25% ( 18.34) | 41.75% ( -18.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.85% ( 16.16) | 64.15% ( -16.16) |
| Peru Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.53% ( 11.07) | 7.47% ( -11.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.15% ( 22.93) | 26.84% ( -22.93) |
| Bolivia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 35.02% ( -9.89) | 64.98% ( 9.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 7.01% ( -5.06) | 92.99% ( 5.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Peru | Draw | Bolivia |
| 2-0 @ 16.33% ( 1.83) 3-0 @ 14.12% ( 5.97)1-0 @ 12.59% ( -4.62)4-0 @ 9.16% ( 5.73)2-1 @ 7.04% ( -1.61)3-1 @ 6.09% ( 1.23)5-0 @ 4.76% ( 3.6)4-1 @ 3.95% ( 1.9)6-0 @ 2.06% ( 1.73)5-1 @ 2.05% ( 1.36)3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.14)Other @ 4.29% Total : 83.75% | 1-1 @ 5.43% ( -4.83) 0-0 @ 4.85% ( -5.36)2-2 @ 1.52% ( -1.06)Other @ 0.2% Total : 12% | 0-1 @ 2.09% ( -4) 1-2 @ 1.17% ( -1.89)Other @ 0.98% Total : 4.24% |
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