SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Poland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 76.08%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 7.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.76%) and 3-0 (11.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.54%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (3.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for France in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for France.
| Result | ||
| France | Draw | Luxembourg |
76.08% ( 4.62) | 16.06% ( -2.38) | 7.86% ( -2.24) |
| Both teams to score 40.14% ( -1.64) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.23% ( 3.24) | 44.77% ( -3.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.87% ( 3.05) | 67.13% ( -3.04) |
| France Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.99% ( 2.11) | 10.01% ( -2.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.96% ( 4.65) | 33.04% ( -4.64) |
| Luxembourg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.6% ( -2.94) | 55.4% ( 2.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.88% ( -1.81) | 88.12% ( 1.82) |
| Score Analysis |
| France | Draw | Luxembourg |
| 2-0 @ 14.68% ( 0.53) 1-0 @ 12.76% ( -0.65)3-0 @ 11.27% ( 1.31)2-1 @ 8.67% ( -0.46)3-1 @ 6.66% ( 0.23)4-0 @ 6.49% ( 1.23)4-1 @ 3.83% ( 0.44)5-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.77)3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.33)6-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.37)4-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.73% Total : 76.07% | 1-1 @ 7.54% ( -1.12) 0-0 @ 5.54% ( -0.81)2-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.39)Other @ 0.42% Total : 16.06% | 0-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.83) 1-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.57)0-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.36)Other @ 1.39% Total : 7.86% |
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