SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Spain | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | -8 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 69.02%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Peru had a probability of 12.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 1-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.5%), while for a Peru win it was 1-2 (3.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Germany in this match.
| Result | ||
| Germany | Draw | Peru |
69.02% ( 0.08) | 18.07% ( -0.05) | 12.92% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.47% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.19% ( 0.16) | 38.81% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.88% ( 0.17) | 61.12% ( -0.17) |
| Germany Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.8% ( 0.06) | 10.2% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.52% ( 0.14) | 33.48% ( -0.14) |
| Peru Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.43% ( 0.06) | 41.57% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.94% ( 0.05) | 78.06% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Germany | Draw | Peru |
| 2-0 @ 11.04% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 9.68% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 8.41% ( 0)3-1 @ 7.38% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 4.21% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.24% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.59% Total : 69.01% | 1-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.26% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.24% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.07% | 1-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.72% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.09% Other @ 1.5% Total : 12.92% |
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