SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Spain | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 2 | Japan | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 4 | Germany | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Spain | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 2 | Japan | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 4 | Germany | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 73.62%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 10.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.49%) and 0-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.6%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 1-0 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Costa Rica | Draw | Germany |
10.26% ( -0.3) | 16.12% ( -0.19) | 73.62% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 50.41% ( -0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.11% ( -0.02) | 36.88% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.94% ( -0.02) | 59.06% ( 0.02) |
| Costa Rica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.17% ( -0.58) | 44.83% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.2% ( -0.47) | 80.8% ( 0.47) |
| Germany Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.38% ( 0.1) | 8.62% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.25% ( 0.25) | 29.74% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Costa Rica | Draw | Germany |
| 1-0 @ 3.1% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 3.05% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.87% Total : 10.26% | 1-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 3.86% ( 0)2-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.92% Total : 16.12% | 0-2 @ 11.6% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 9.49% ( 0.15)0-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.06)1-2 @ 9.31% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 7.61% ( -0)0-4 @ 5.81% ( 0.12)1-4 @ 4.66% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 2.85% ( 0.07)1-5 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.87% ( -0.02)0-6 @ 1.16% ( 0.03)1-6 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.58% Total : 73.61% |
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