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World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Second Round
Mar 21, 2024 at 4pm UK
Azadi Stadium
TN

Iran
5 - 0
Turkmenistan

Kanani (10', 48'), Azmoun (13'), Mohebi (56'), Noorafkan (90+2')
Fallah (89')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Iran 2-3 Qatar
Wednesday, February 7 at 3pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Kazakhstan 2-0 Turkmenistan
Thursday, March 14 at 3pm in International Friendlies

We said: Iran 4-0 Turkmenistan

Iran are the overwhelming favorites in this fixture and should win with a comfortable margin. Turkmenistan have recorded seven losses in their ten-match winless streak heading into this game and the clear underdogs here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 72.32%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Turkmenistan had a probability of 10.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.87%) and 3-0 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.32%), while for a Turkmenistan win it was 0-1 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.

Result
IranDrawTurkmenistan
72.32% (0.514 0.51) 17.51% (-0.038 -0.04) 10.16% (-0.481 -0.48)
Both teams to score 44.97% (-1.659 -1.66)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.2% (-1.241 -1.24)43.79% (1.235 1.24)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.81% (-1.225 -1.22)66.18% (1.22 1.22)
Iran Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.29% (-0.205 -0.2)10.71% (0.198 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
65.36% (-0.455 -0.45)34.63% (0.447 0.45)
Turkmenistan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.36% (-1.742 -1.74)49.63% (1.736 1.74)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.6% (-1.251 -1.25)84.4% (1.245 1.25)
Score Analysis
    Iran 72.31%
    Turkmenistan 10.16%
    Draw 17.51%
IranDrawTurkmenistan
2-0 @ 13.26% (0.49 0.49)
1-0 @ 11.87% (0.54 0.54)
3-0 @ 9.88% (0.285 0.29)
2-1 @ 9.29% (-0.112 -0.11)
3-1 @ 6.92% (-0.142 -0.14)
4-0 @ 5.52% (0.113 0.11)
4-1 @ 3.87% (-0.113 -0.11)
5-0 @ 2.47% (0.03 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.42% (-0.176 -0.18)
5-1 @ 1.73% (-0.066 -0.07)
4-2 @ 1.35% (-0.11 -0.11)
6-0 @ 0.92% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 72.31%
1-1 @ 8.32% (-0.029 -0.03)
0-0 @ 5.31% (0.282 0.28)
2-2 @ 3.26% (-0.207 -0.21)
Other @ 0.62%
Total : 17.51%
0-1 @ 3.72% (0.018 0.02)
1-2 @ 2.91% (-0.159 -0.16)
0-2 @ 1.3% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 10.16%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Iran 2-3 Qatar
Wednesday, February 7 at 3pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Iran 2-1 Japan
Saturday, February 3 at 11.30am in Asian Cup
Last Game: Iran 1-1 Syria (5-3 pen.)
Wednesday, January 31 at 4pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Iran 2-1 UAE
Tuesday, January 23 at 3pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Hong Kong 0-1 Iran
Friday, January 19 at 5.30pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Iran 4-1 Palestine
Sunday, January 14 at 5.30pm in Asian Cup
Last Game: Kazakhstan 2-0 Turkmenistan
Thursday, March 14 at 3pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Hong Kong 2-2 Turkmenistan
Tuesday, November 21 at 12pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Last Game: Turkmenistan 1-3 Uzbekistan
Thursday, November 16 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Last Game: Bahrain 1-1 Turkmenistan
Tuesday, September 12 at 4pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Indonesia 2-0 Turkmenistan
Friday, September 8 at 1.30pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Malaysia 1-0 Turkmenistan
Thursday, March 23 at 2pm in International Friendlies


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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