SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Qatar | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Honduras | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Haiti | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Algeria | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Kenya | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qatar win with a probability of 56.79%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Kenya had a probability of 18.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qatar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.82%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Kenya win it was 0-1 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Qatar | Draw | Kenya |
56.79% ( 1.12) | 25% ( -0.49) | 18.22% ( -0.62) |
| Both teams to score 43.22% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.43% ( 0.94) | 57.57% ( -0.93) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.65% ( 0.74) | 78.35% ( -0.73) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.74% ( 0.83) | 20.26% ( -0.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.39% ( 1.3) | 52.61% ( -1.29) |
| Kenya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.2% ( -0.19) | 45.81% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 18.43% ( -0.15) | 81.57% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qatar | Draw | Kenya |
| 1-0 @ 14.81% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 11.82% ( 0.17)2-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.17)4-0 @ 2.51% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.31% Total : 56.77% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 9.28% ( -0.34)2-2 @ 3.61% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.54% Total : 24.99% | 0-1 @ 7.25% ( -0.3) 1-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 1.51% Total : 18.22% |
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