SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Sudan | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Libya | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sudan win with a probability of 44.78%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Rwanda had a probability of 26.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sudan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.07%) and 2-1 (8.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.04%), while for a Rwanda win it was 0-1 (10.16%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sudan | Draw | Rwanda |
44.78% ( -0.01) | 28.47% ( 0) | 26.75% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 43.54% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.87% ( -0.01) | 62.13% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.17% ( -0) | 81.83% ( 0) |
| Sudan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.28% ( -0.01) | 27.72% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.71% ( -0.01) | 63.29% ( 0.01) |
| Rwanda Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.23% ( -0) | 39.76% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.56% | 76.43% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sudan | Draw | Rwanda |
| 1-0 @ 14.14% 2-0 @ 9.07% ( -0)2-1 @ 8.37% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.88% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.58% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.65% 4-0 @ 1.24% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.15% Other @ 1.7% Total : 44.78% | 1-1 @ 13.04% 0-0 @ 11.02% 2-2 @ 3.86% ( -0)Other @ 0.55% Total : 28.47% | 0-1 @ 10.16% 1-2 @ 6.01% 0-2 @ 4.69% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.85% 0-3 @ 1.44% 2-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 1.4% Total : 26.74% |
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