SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Tajikistan | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | China | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 66.95%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Afghanistan had a probability of 12.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.59%), while for an Afghanistan win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tajikistan | Draw | Afghanistan |
66.95% ( -0.24) | 20.32% ( 0.15) | 12.73% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 44.4% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.74% ( -0.42) | 49.26% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.68% ( -0.38) | 71.31% ( 0.38) |
| Tajikistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.2% ( -0.2) | 13.8% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.86% ( -0.41) | 41.13% ( 0.41) |
| Afghanistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.52% ( -0.11) | 48.48% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.42% ( -0.08) | 83.58% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tajikistan | Draw | Afghanistan |
| 1-0 @ 13.25% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 13.12% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.23% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.43% Total : 66.95% | 1-1 @ 9.59% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.69% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 3.44% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.6% Total : 20.32% | 0-1 @ 4.84% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.75% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.66% Total : 12.73% |
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