SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Tajikistan | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | China | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philippines win with a probability of 68.97%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Tajikistan had a probability of 11.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philippines win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.32%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.19%), while for a Tajikistan win it was 0-1 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Philippines | Draw | Tajikistan |
68.97% ( -0.23) | 19.5% ( 0.12) | 11.52% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 43.33% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.31% ( -0.24) | 48.68% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.2% ( -0.22) | 70.8% ( 0.22) |
| Philippines Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.97% ( -0.14) | 13.02% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.42% ( -0.29) | 39.57% ( 0.29) |
| Tajikistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.82% ( 0.05) | 50.18% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.22% ( 0.03) | 84.78% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Philippines | Draw | Tajikistan |
| 2-0 @ 13.57% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 13.32% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 9.23% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 6.36% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 3.24% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.64% Total : 68.96% | 1-1 @ 9.19% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.54% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.55% Total : 19.5% | 0-1 @ 4.51% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.3% Total : 11.53% |
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