SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Qatar | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Tajikistan | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | China | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Lebanon | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 67.21%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Nepal had a probability of 12.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.18%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.54%), while for a Nepal win it was 0-1 (4.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Tajikistan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tajikistan | Draw | Nepal |
67.21% ( 0.01) | 20.22% ( -0) | 12.57% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.27% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.81% ( -0.02) | 49.18% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.75% ( -0.02) | 71.25% ( 0.02) |
| Tajikistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.3% ( -0) | 13.7% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.07% ( -0.01) | 40.93% ( 0.01) |
| Nepal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.29% ( -0.02) | 48.7% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.26% ( -0.02) | 83.74% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tajikistan | Draw | Nepal |
| 1-0 @ 13.26% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 13.18% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.48% ( -0)3-0 @ 8.74% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.28% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.34% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.12% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.26% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.73% 5-1 @ 1.24% 4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0)Other @ 2.45% Total : 67.21% | 1-1 @ 9.54% ( -0) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( 0)2-2 @ 3.41% ( -0)Other @ 0.59% Total : 20.22% | 0-1 @ 4.8% ( 0) 1-2 @ 3.43% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.61% Total : 12.57% |
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