SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 38 | 2 | 49 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 38 | -4 | 48 |
| 13 | Gamba Osaka | 39 | -17 | 44 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 47.9%. A win for Jubilo Iwata had a probability of 27.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.39%) and 0-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Jubilo Iwata win was 2-1 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Jubilo Iwata | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
27.89% ( 1.51) | 24.21% ( -0.27) | 47.9% ( -1.24) |
| Both teams to score 56.91% ( 2.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.8% ( 2.25) | 45.2% ( -2.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.46% ( 2.12) | 67.54% ( -2.13) |
| Jubilo Iwata Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.24% ( 2.33) | 29.76% ( -2.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.17% ( 2.73) | 65.83% ( -2.73) |
| Cerezo Osaka Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.02% ( 0.38) | 18.98% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.48% ( 0.63) | 50.52% ( -0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jubilo Iwata | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
| 2-1 @ 6.89% ( 0.3) 1-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.22)2-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.29)3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.27)3-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.16)Other @ 3.23% Total : 27.89% | 1-1 @ 11.37% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.32)0-0 @ 5.65% ( -0.57)3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.2% | 1-2 @ 9.45% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.82)0-2 @ 7.8% ( -0.58)1-3 @ 5.24% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 4.32% ( -0.26)2-3 @ 3.17% ( 0.21)1-4 @ 2.18% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.8% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.24% Total : 47.9% |
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