Alaves have been strong at home this season, and they are capable of making this a tricky match for Athletic. It would certainly not be a surprise to see an away win, but we just have a feeling that the points will be shared in this all-Basque clash. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.65%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.72%) and 1-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (12.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Alaves	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
31.29% ( 0.05)	30.06% ( -0.01)	38.65% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 41.53% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.38% (

0.02)

65.61% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.68% (

0.02)

84.32% (

-0.02)

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.96% (

0.05)

38.04% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.19% (

0.05)

74.81% (

-0.05)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.02% (

-0.01)

32.98% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.44% (

-0.01)

69.56% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Alaves 31.29%

Athletic Bilbao 38.64%

Draw 30.06%

Alaves	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 12.12% 2-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.86% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.09% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 1.66% Total : 31.29%	1-1 @ 13.45% 0-0 @ 12.54% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.61% ( 0) Other @ 0.46% Total : 30.06%	0-1 @ 13.91% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.72% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.46% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.76% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( 0) Other @ 2.61% Total : 38.64%