The last three La Liga meetings between these two sides have finished 1-1, and we are predicting the same scoreline here. It would not be a surprise to see a home or an away win on Saturday afternoon, but a lot of the signs are pointing towards a draw, which would not be the worst result in the world for either side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Leganes had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.9%) and 2-1 (7.68%). The likeliest Leganes win was 0-1 (11.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
-0.37) 
0.49) 
