Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 45.98%. A draw had a probability of 29.8% and a win for Leganes had a probability of 24.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.31%), while for a Leganes win it was 0-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alaves would win this match.
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