Alaves
1 - 4
Real Madrid

Joselu (65' pen.)
Garcia (35')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Benzema (48', 62'), Nacho (56'), Junior (90+2')
Bale (53'), Courtois (64')

Build‑up

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 61.8%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 16.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.91%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Alaves	Draw	Real Madrid
16.84%	21.36%	61.8%

Both teams to score 51.19%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.48%

45.52%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.15%

67.85%

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.65%

40.35%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.03%

76.97%

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.81%

14.19%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.1%

41.9%

Score Analysis

Alaves 16.84%

Real Madrid 61.79%

Draw 21.35%

Alaves	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 5.2% 2-1 @ 4.61% 2-0 @ 2.36% 3-1 @ 1.39% 3-2 @ 1.36% Other @ 1.93% Total : 16.84%	1-1 @ 10.14% 0-0 @ 5.73% 2-2 @ 4.5% Other @ 0.99% Total : 21.35%	0-1 @ 11.18% 0-2 @ 10.91% 1-2 @ 9.91% 0-3 @ 7.11% 1-3 @ 6.45% 0-4 @ 3.47% 1-4 @ 3.15% 2-3 @ 2.93% 2-4 @ 1.43% 0-5 @ 1.36% 1-5 @ 1.23% Other @ 2.69% Total : 61.79%