SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 3 | 62 |
| 7 | Villarreal | 38 | 26 | 59 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 7 | 55 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Villarreal | 38 | 26 | 59 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 7 | 55 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | -5 | 48 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 58.71%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 17.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.85%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (6.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 58.71% | 23.84% | 17.44% |
| Both teams to score 44.95% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.49% | 54.5% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.13% | 75.86% |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.64% | 18.35% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.53% | 49.47% |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.05% | 44.94% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 19.11% | 80.89% |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 1-0 @ 13.98% 2-0 @ 11.85% 2-1 @ 9.48% 3-0 @ 6.7% 3-1 @ 5.36% 4-0 @ 2.84% 4-1 @ 2.27% 3-2 @ 2.14% 5-0 @ 0.96% 4-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.21% Total : 58.7% | 1-1 @ 11.18% 0-0 @ 8.25% 2-2 @ 3.79% Other @ 0.62% Total : 23.84% | 0-1 @ 6.6% 1-2 @ 4.47% 0-2 @ 2.64% 1-3 @ 1.19% 2-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.53% Total : 17.44% |
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