These two teams are well-matched on paper, and we are expecting a tight match on Sunday. Almeria have lost their last four La Liga matches on the road, but we have a feeling that they will be good enough for a point this weekend, as Alaves have also had issues winning matches this season.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 45.52%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Almeria win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alaves in this match.
-0.63) 
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