Alaves will certainly have had longer to prepare for this match, but it is so difficult to back them to pick up a positive result. Atletico's recent form in La Liga is excellent, and we are expecting the capital side to secure another three points in Sunday's contest at Wanda Metropolitano.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 56.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 19.08%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
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