Both teams have been strong defensively this season, while Las Palmas have found it difficult to hit the back of the net, so we are predicting a low-scoring away win here, but it would not be a huge surprise if Las Palmas were able to hold Simeone's team to a goalless draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45.91%. A win for Las Palmas had a probability of 28.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (8.23%). The likeliest Las Palmas win was 1-0 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
-0.09) 
0.15) 
