We said: Villarreal 1-2 Sevilla
Villarreal battled hard against Liverpool but ultimately came up short, and they may feel the impact of a drain in adrenaline at the weekend.
We back the visitors, who are more rested than their opponents, to take all three points from Emery's potentially jaded squad.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 46.33%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.