Rayo are on a roll at the moment, and we can see the surprise top-four challengers picking up another three points here. Getafe's home form this season is the second-worst in the league, and although they were much improved against Atletico, Rayo have enough quality to secure another three points on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 39.03%. A win for Getafe had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.55%). The likeliest Getafe win was 1-0 (11.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
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