Atletico will have been wounded by their four-goal loss to Benfica, and Simeone will be demanding a response from his players this weekend. Real Sociedad have not been able to settle into the new campaign, and we are backing Atletico to edge a close match on Sunday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 35.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 1-0 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
0.42) 
-0.45) 
