Atletico have so much quality all across the pitch, and with Simeone having the luxury of freshening his side this weekend, we are not expecting a European hangover. Rayo have enough about them to score, but we are backing the visitors to navigate their way to all three points on Sunday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 23.84%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.69%) and 1-2 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
-0.18) 
0.22) 
