We said: Villarreal 1-1 Real Sociedad
With so much on the line on Sunday, we predict a tight encounter and see a share of the spoils as the most likely outcome.
While the hosts desperately need a win in their pursuit of European qualification, the losses of Danjuma and Moreno could hit them hard against a stronger defence, and we do not see them putting La Real to the sword with a makeshift front line.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.