Real Sociedad recorded a 3-0 win over Villarreal in the reverse match earlier this season; we are not expecting it to be so one-sided in this game, especially considering the home side's injury problems. However, Real Sociedad should still have enough quality to navigate their way to an important three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 51.18%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 24.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 0-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
-0.1) 
0.06) 
