Sevilla desperately need a win, but their home record has been poor this season, picking up just 10 points from 10 matches. Alaves have struggled on their travels, though, collecting only four points from 10 games, and we are backing the hosts to secure what would be a huge three points on Friday night.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 46.78%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 25.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.3%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
-0.62) 
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