Villarreal need the points more than Rayo, but the home side's recent form must be respected, therefore this is a difficult match to call. It would not be a surprise to see a home or away victory on Thursday, but we believe that the two teams could ultimately cancel each other out in an entertaining draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.22%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.1) 
