Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Waterford United win with a probability of 36.97%. A win for Dundalk had a probability of 36.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Waterford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Dundalk win was 0-1 (9.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Waterford United would win this match.
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