SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 76.09%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Torquay United had a probability of 8.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.07%) and 1-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.06%), while for a Torquay United win it was 0-1 (2.76%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Torquay United |
76.09% ( 0.04) | 14.97% ( -0.02) | 8.93% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 49.22% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.41% ( 0.04) | 35.59% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.35% ( 0.04) | 57.64% ( -0.04) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.22% ( 0.01) | 7.77% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 72.37% ( 0.04) | 27.62% ( -0.05) |
| Torquay United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.36% ( -0.02) | 46.63% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.79% ( -0.01) | 82.2% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Torquay United |
| 2-0 @ 11.82% 3-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 9.26% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.02% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.68% ( 0)4-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.91% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.93% 5-1 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.4% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.07% ( 0)5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 2.87% Total : 76.08% | 1-1 @ 7.06% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.62% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.44% ( -0)Other @ 0.84% Total : 14.97% | 0-1 @ 2.76% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.69% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.42% Total : 8.93% |
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