Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 47.29%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 25.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.35%) and 1-2 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (9.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Exeter City in this match.
