Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 46.76%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 27.24% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cheltenham Town in this match.
-1.85) 
0.27) 
