Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Birmingham City win with a probability of 68.54%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 13.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Birmingham City win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.16%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 2-1 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Birmingham City would win this match.
Result | ||
Crawley Town | Draw | Birmingham City |
13.7% ( -0.69) | 17.76% ( 0.25) | 68.54% ( 0.45) |
Both teams to score 56.04% ( -3.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
64.65% ( -2.93) | 35.34% ( 2.93) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
42.62% ( -3.32) | 57.37% ( 3.33) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.84% ( -2.88) | 38.15% ( 2.88) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.08% ( -2.88) | 74.92% ( 2.88) |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.61% ( -0.67) | 9.38% ( 0.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.42% ( -1.6) | 31.58% ( 1.61) |
Score Analysis |
Crawley Town | Draw | Birmingham City |
2-1 @ 3.93% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 1.66% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.23) 3-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.15) Other @ 1.9% Total : 13.7% | 1-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.32) 0-0 @ 3.58% ( 0.51) 3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.23) Other @ 0.18% Total : 17.76% | 0-2 @ 10.02% ( 0.87) 1-2 @ 9.66% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.97) 0-3 @ 7.91% ( 0.46) 1-3 @ 7.62% ( -0.14) 0-4 @ 4.68% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 4.51% ( -0.23) 2-3 @ 3.67% ( -0.37) 0-5 @ 2.21% ( -0) 2-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.3) 1-5 @ 2.13% ( -0.18) 2-5 @ 1.03% ( -0.18) Other @ 4.47% Total : 68.54% |
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